Under conventional wisdom, the 25-month gap since Manny Pacquiao’s last fight should work against him on Saturday night, when he faces Yordenis Ugas, a Cuban fighter based in Las Vegas, for the World Boxing Association welterweight title.

Pacquiao, 42, could return to the ring two years slower and more brittle than when he outclassed Keith Thurman in July 2019 to become the oldest welterweight champion in men’s boxing history. Ugas is three inches taller and seven years younger than Pacquiao, and could make Pacquiao pay if the older fighter’s speed has been dulled during his two-year absence.