MELBOURNE (BLOOMBERG) - The new coronavirus might have infected at least 500,000 people in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicentre of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks.

The typically bustling megacity, where the so-called 2019-nCoV virus emerged late last year, has been in effective lockdown since Jan 23, restricting the movement of 11 million people. Recent trends in reported cases in Wuhan broadly support the preliminary mathematical modelling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic's transmission dynamics.