Apple’s upcoming product launch event on September 9 is not expected to drive major gains for its stock, according to market analysts.

The company’s shares rose 3.3% last week after an antitrust ruling let it continue receiving search payments from Alphabet, adding to a rally that has boosted Apple’s market value by over US$450 billion since July.

Apple is set to unveil its iPhone 17 lineup, including a slimmer model, along with new Apple Watch and Vision Pro headset updates.

Analysts question if these updates will boost growth, especially as Apple’s AI strategy remains unclear and its revenue growth is projected to slow in the coming quarters.

Historically, Apple shares often drop on launch days, and the stock remains down over 4% for 2025 despite a 39% rebound since April.

Some analysts suggest that raising product prices could support growth, as Apple has not increased prices in several years.

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🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Apple product launches historically follow a predictable stock pattern despite initial excitement

Apple’s stock typically experiences volatility around product launches, often declining initially before recovering in subsequent weeks or months1. Historical data shows mixed immediate reactions: the original iPod saw a 2.71% drop on launch day in 2001, while the first iPhone rose 1.23% in 2007 but then gained 16% within a month1. However, successful launches often drive substantial long-term gains—the iPhone announcement in 2007 led to the stock nearly doubling within a year2. This pattern suggests that while immediate market reactions can be unpredictable, transformative products eventually translate into significant stock appreciation once their market impact becomes clear.

Tech sector concentration creates amplified stakes for major product events

Apple operates within a tech sector that now commands unprecedented market influence, with major tech companies collectively worth $21 trillion and representing 36% of the S&P 5003. This concentration means Apple’s product events carry outsized market implications beyond just the company’s individual performance. The elevated expectations reflect both the sector’s dominance and the pressure on individual companies to justify premium valuations through consistent innovation.

Recent Apple developments

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