China is expected to make notable advancements in AI in the next 18 months, according to Zhu Min, a former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, Zhu forecasted that over 100 breakthroughs, similar to the DeepSeek AI model, may occur during this time.

Zhu cited China’s engineering talent pool, large consumer base, and supportive government policies as critical factors for AI growth.

He indicated that these advancements could fundamentally alter the country’s economy and technological landscape.

The introduction of DeepSeek, a low-cost AI model launched in January, has already positively impacted China’s tech stocks.

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🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ China’s AI ambitions follow a long-term strategic roadmap

Zhu’s prediction of 100+ DeepSeek-like breakthroughs isn’t a sudden development but part of a deliberate national strategy dating back to 2017.

The Chinese government laid the foundation with its “New Generation AI Development Plan” released in July 2017, which set the explicit goal of making China the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030 1.

This plan, catalyzed by China’s response to AlphaGo’s defeat of world champion Lee Sedol in 2016, established a target of creating a 1 trillion RMB ($150 billion) AI industry by 2030 1.

Major tech firms like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have been integral to executing this strategy, with dedicated roles in developing specific AI capabilities including autonomous vehicles and deep learning 1.

Beyond central planning, local governments across China have developed their own AI initiatives, with cities like Beijing and Hangzhou investing billions in AI parks and research institutes, creating a multi-layered innovation ecosystem 1.

The “AI Plus” initiative mentioned in recent government communications further demonstrates China’s continued commitment to accelerating science and technology innovation, with DeepSeek representing just one success in this broader strategic push 2.

2️⃣ The narrowing AI gap despite export controls

While the article mentions US efforts to block Chinese companies from acquiring advanced AI chips, evidence suggests these restrictions have had limited effectiveness in slowing China’s AI progress.

Recent advancements by Chinese companies indicate the gap between US and Chinese AI capabilities is narrowing despite the Biden administration’s export restrictions designed to constrain China’s progress 3.

US export controls on advanced semiconductors have been ineffective in completely halting China’s AI development, as evidenced by continued advancements in Chinese AI models and instances of advanced chip production for Chinese firms 4.

The competitive dynamic has shifted toward a focus on total compute capacity and deployment infrastructure rather than just model capabilities, with the US still maintaining advantages in these areas despite China’s progress in model development 4.

This ongoing advancement despite restrictions provides important context for understanding how DeepSeek emerged despite the trade tensions and export controls described in the original article.

3️⃣ The intertwined nature of US-China tech competition

The article’s mention of trade tensions highlights the complex interdependence that characterizes the US-China technology relationship.

Despite competitive rhetoric, the US and China remain deeply interconnected in technology supply chains, with mutual dependencies in electronics manufacturing and design that complicate decoupling efforts 5.

However, experts warn that excessive trade restrictions could ultimately undermine US technological competitiveness by limiting access to critical inputs and hindering international collaboration necessary for maintaining a technological edge 6.

This complex dynamic suggests that while DeepSeek’s emergence may have triggered stock rallies in China, the longer-term trajectory of AI development in both countries will be shaped by their continued interdependence rather than complete technological separation.

Recent DeepSeek developments

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