A new report by Momentum Works and Lazada indicates that generative AI could contribute up to US$131 billion annually to Southeast Asia’s ecommerce sector.

The findings suggest that integrating AI throughout the ecommerce value chain could increase the region’s gross merchandise value (GMV) to US$413 billion by 2030.

The report, titled “Transforming Ecommerce with AI: Sell Smarter and Shop Better,” outlines three scenarios for AI adoption in ecommerce: high, medium, and low.

Under the high adoption scenario, ecommerce penetration in the region could reach 24%. This highlights significant growth opportunities.

Generative AI tools, including personalized engines, dynamic pricing algorithms, and predictive logistics, are identified as key factors driving this change.

The report also highlights a performance gap between early adopters of AI and those who have not yet integrated it.

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🔗 Source: Momentum Works

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ The e-commerce adoption gap mirrors historical technology transition patterns

Southeast Asia’s e-commerce landscape shows a striking disparity: 91% of consumers use AI for discovery while only 26% of sellers have integrated it into operations, according to the Momentum Works and Lazada report.

This adoption gap follows historical patterns seen throughout e-commerce evolution, from the hesitant uptake of online selling in the late 1990s to subsequent waves of digital transformation.

In 1998, only 1% of Canadian retail trade was online despite projected growth to 4.6% by 2003, showing how businesses historically lag behind available technology and consumer adoption 1.

The current transition from “E-commerce 3.0” (focused on customer-centricity) to an AI-native paradigm represents the fourth major evolution in e-commerce’s development since its origins in the 1960s with Electronic Data Interchange systems 2.

Research across multiple markets identifies common adoption barriers: high implementation costs, time-consuming integration processes, and talent gaps—suggesting these are fundamental challenges rather than region-specific issues 345.

2️⃣ Southeast Asia’s uneven AI development creates regional competitive dynamics

The projected US$131 billion in additional value must be understood within Southeast Asia’s highly uneven AI investment landscape.

Singapore dominates the region’s AI venture capital funding, receiving $8.4 billion or approximately 75% of all AI investment in Southeast Asia, creating significant disparities in AI readiness among markets 67.

This concentration of resources means that sellers in Singapore-based platforms like Lazada may gain competitive advantages over regional competitors, potentially reshaping market dynamics across the region.

The economic impact of AI adoption varies significantly by country, with the total regional GDP boost of 13-18% by 2030 (nearly $1 trillion) likely to be distributed unevenly based on existing technological infrastructure and adoption rates 7.

These regional disparities explain why platforms like Lazada are creating structured AI adoption frameworks (like the AI Readiness Playbook mentioned in the report) to help equalize seller capabilities across different markets 3.

3️⃣ The seller adoption journey follows identifiable patterns requiring targeted support

The categorization of sellers into AI Adepts (24%), Aspirants (50%), and Agnostics (26%) reveals a structured adoption curve that requires different support strategies for each segment 35.

Despite high awareness of AI’s potential (94% recognition among sellers), the much lower implementation rate (37%) indicates specific bottlenecks in the adoption journey that platforms must address through targeted tools and resources 8.

Historical data shows this pattern is consistent with previous e-commerce transitions, where businesses recognize opportunities but struggle with implementation—similar to how 76% of B2B organizations planned to upgrade their e-commerce platforms in 2019 despite significant adoption challenges 2.

Current retail data supports this pattern, with 69% of retailers planning to adopt AI technologies in the next 12-24 months despite only 27% currently using AI/ML for inventory and order processes, showing a consistent gap between intention and implementation 4.

The projected $131 billion in additional value depends significantly on platforms like Lazada successfully moving sellers through these adoption stages, particularly converting the 50% of “Aspirants” into active AI users.

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