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Barisan Nasional (BN) is on course to retain Johor in Saturday’s state election, with Merdeka Center projecting the coalition to win between 40 and 42 of the 56 state seats.

According to Merdeka Center programme director Ibrahim Suffian, Umno has significantly strengthened its position in the state since the 15th General Election, driven by a rebound in Malay support.

He said Malay backing for Umno is now estimated at between 55 and 60 per cent, up from around 45 per cent during GE15.

In the 2022 Johor state election, BN secured 40 of the 56 seats, with Umno accounting for 33, followed by MCA with four and MIC with three. DAP won 10 seats, while Bersatu took two, and PKR, Amanah, PAS and Muda each secured one.

Despite BN’s favourable outlook, Ibrahim cautioned that Umno’s cooperation with PAS could have unintended consequences among non-Malay voters.

He said while some non-Malay voters remain dissatisfied with the unity government over unmet expectations and reform promises, PAS’ involvement could discourage Chinese voters from supporting MCA candidates.

“Many non-Malay voters, particularly the Chinese community, are still reluctant to support PAS in any form, making it harder for MCA candidates to benefit from the cooperation,” he was quoted as saying by Malaysiakini.

He said this during a webinar organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, yerterday.

Ibrahim also described the Johor election as an important benchmark ahead of the Negeri Sembilan polls and the next general election.

He said the outcome would provide an indication of whether Umno had successfully rebuilt its political strength, and whether the PAS-led “green wave” that gained momentum in recent elections had peaked or was beginning to lose steam.

READ MORE: Anwar Steps Up Johor Campaign As PH Claims Momentum Builds Towards Polling Day

“The result will also test whether Umno’s strategy of contesting independently is one that can be replicated successfully in the next general election,” he said.

Commenting on claims by former Umno supreme council member Datuk Mohd Puad Zarkashi that the party was being influenced by the Johor palace, Ibrahim said the controversy could resonate with younger Malay voters.

READ MORE: Puad Zarkashi Quits Umno, Claims Johor Party Is Under Palace Influence

“As a result, younger Malay voters are more inclined to cast protest votes, which could benefit Bersatu or PAS, as both parties remain more recognisable alternatives than Pakatan Harapan among this demographic.”

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