Mideast Conflict Imperils a Tiny Waterway Vital to the World Economy

By Albert Sun ,  Josh Holder ,  Rebecca F. Elliott ,  Peter Eavis and Samuel Granados

June 25, 2025

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MALAYSIA OMAN KENYA TANZANIA EGYPT SOUTH AFRICA IRAQ TURKEY YEMEN PAKISTAN THAILAND

Where oil tankers were on May 19

Position

Route

Source: Kpler

Every day, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply squeezes through a narrow waterway on Iran’s southern border, destined for countries like China, South Korea and even the United States.

This passage, called the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the energy industry’s most important trading routes — and also one of its most vulnerable.

Whether the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Iran holds will have big implications for the global economy, not least because of this chokepoint.

Whenever tensions escalate around the strait, government officials, oil executives, investors and economists grow concerned that Iran might try to interfere with tankers carrying oil or natural gas. That could reduce the flow of energy to much of the world and send energy prices soaring for consumers and businesses.

“The world can’t do without that energy supply,” said Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “A cutoff would be an unprecedented, severe blow to the global economy.”

There were some signs that the war had disrupted vessel traffic through the narrow waterway. Shortly after the United States dropped bombs on Iran on Saturday, several tankers abruptly reversed course, suggesting that uncertainty about the conflict had deterred commercial activity.

Energy markets calmed down on Monday after Iran’s response to the American bombings appeared to leave room for de-escalation. Prices fell further after President Trump said Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease-fire. On Tuesday, the U.S. oil benchmark was back where it was before the conflict began, hovering around $65 a barrel.

Economic risks remain, however, and traders are closely watching shipping data for signs that the war might interrupt the supply of oil and gas. It is also possible, if the conflict eases, that the world could be left with far more oil than it needs, which would send prices lower, benefiting consumers but hurting places that produce a lot of fuel.

Hormuz is a chokepoint for the Persian Gulf

Position of tanker ship

Iran’s

territorial

waters

IRAQ

IRAN

Umm Qasr

Iran exports nearly all

of its oil from terminals

on Kharg Island.

KUWAIT

Persian

Gulf

Strait of

Hormuz

al-Jubail

BAHRAIN

Ras Tanura

QATAR

Fujairah

Mesaieed

Sohar

Ruwais

SAUDI

ARABIA

U.A.E.

OMAN

Iran’s

territorial

waters

IRAQ

Umm Qasr

Iran exports nearly all

of its oil from terminals

on Kharg Island.

KUWAIT

Shuaiba

The navigable lanes are just two miles wide in each direction.

Persian

Gulf

IRAN

Strait of

Hormuz

al-Jubail

Ras Tanura

BAHRAIN

SAUDI

ARABIA

QATAR

Fujairah

Mesaieed

Sohar

Ruwais

OMAN

U.A.E.

Sources: Tanker ship locations from Kpler; Boundaries from Marine Regions and Flanders Marine Institute.

Note: Tanker ships that passed through the Persian Gulf at least once between May 19 and June 19, 2025.

By The New York Times

Last week, as Mr. Trump hinted he might strike Iran, 703 vessels went through the Strait of Hormuz, a 14 percent drop from the previous week, and 10 percent less than the weekly average for this year, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

One reason for the decline is that shipping companies have become much more cautious.

Angeliki Frangou, the chief executive of Navios Maritime Partners, a shipping company that operates in the region, said some vessels were pausing before proceeding through the Strait of Hormuz, creating congestion.

“The situation has materially changed from two weeks ago,” she said.

Within hours after the U.S. attack, at least three tankers that were approaching the Persian Gulf made turns to wait outside of the strait, according to ship tracking data. At least three others turned back and paused before turning again to continue into the gulf.

Tankers turn back from the strait

At least three empty oil tankers have turned away or stopped outside the Strait of Hormuz rather than proceeding into the Persian Gulf

Position of tanker when U.S. strike announced

June 22:

The Kohzan Maru turned around two hours after news of the U.S. strike.

Iran

Persian

Gulf

Qatar

June 20

Saudi

Arabia

U.A.E.

Oman

June

23

June 22:

The Red Ruby stopped four

hours after the news, then turned back Sunday afternoon.

Iran

Persian

Gulf

June 20

Qatar

June 23

Saudi

Arabia

U.A.E.

Oman

June 22:

The Marie C diverted seven

hours after the news to

wait near Fujairah.

Iran

Persian

Gulf

Qatar

June 23

June 20

Saudi

Arabia

U.A.E.

Oman

Source: Ship locations from Kpler

By The New York Times

A big problem for shipping in the area are efforts, seemingly coming from Iran, to interfere with vessels’ GPS navigation systems. Earlier this month, the GPS attacks were affecting some 1,000 vessels a day, according to Windward, a maritime analytics firm. Two oil tankers collided last week near the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates blamed navigational errors for the collision.

Any more concerted efforts to close the strait or make it more difficult for vessels to pass would hurt big energy producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. It would hamstring Iran, too, because the country’s economy is highly dependent on sales of oil, and nearly all of its exports leave via the Strait of Hormuz.

Some of the oil that is produced in the Persian Gulf likely could get to customers other ways, such as through pipelines, but there is only enough capacity to accommodate a fraction of the region’s supply, according to Mr. Seigle.

Israel and Iran have damaged each other’s energy assets. Targets have included an Iranian natural gas field, Tehran’s main gas depot and Israel’s largest oil refinery.

In addition to oil and related fuels, around a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas — fuel that has been cooled so that it can be shipped — also travels through the channel each day.

More than 80 percent of the oil and liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., that passes through the strait goes to Asia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That makes countries like China particularly keen to make sure the strait remains passable.

Of course, oil is traded globally, meaning any significant reduction in supply would be quickly felt around the world in the form of higher prices.

Asia would be hit hardest by a disruption

Destinations of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz

15 million barrels per day

Other

United States

Europe

Other Asia

10

Japan

South Korea

India

5

China

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

15 million

barrels per day

Other

U.S.

Europe

Other

Asia

10

Japan

South

Korea

India

5

China

0

2020

2022

2024

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Vortexa

Note: Data includes crude oil and condensate

By The New York Times

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