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The controversy surrounding Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s house arrest could cost Pakatan Harapan (PH) support in the Melaka state election, with some dissatisfied voters potentially abstaining or shifting their support to Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), analysts say.

While the issue could rally sections of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) traditional support base, its greater political cost may fall on PH, particularly among urban and younger voters who question the government’s commitment to institutional reform and accountability.

Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the controversy would influence political perceptions but was unlikely to fundamentally alter Melaka’s electoral landscape.

He said some PH supporters could feel betrayed by the developments, although their dissatisfaction would not necessarily translate into votes for BN or Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Awang Azman believes that traditional Umno strongholds such as Tanjung Bidara, contested by Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh, are expected to remain largely unaffected by the controversy surrounding Najib’s house arrest. (Picture credit: Ab Rauf Yusoh/Facebook)

Awang Azman said Najib’s house arrest stemmed from a constitutional clemency process and a court ruling, rather than merely a political arrangement. He added that the High Court’s decision on Nov 10 provided an important legal context that voters should distinguish from partisan interpretations.

He said BN could benefit from renewed solidarity among traditional supporters, particularly sections of the Malay electorate who remain sympathetic to Najib’s political legacy.

“Ultimately, Melaka voters are also pragmatic. They will assess political stability, development, economic opportunities and the performance of the state government,” he told TRP.

Awang Azman added that BN’s electoral strengths extended beyond the Najib issue, including its grassroots machinery, governing record and the appeal of political continuity under BN Melaka chief and caretaker chief minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh.

Cooperation between BN and PN could also consolidate support, although the extent of vote transfers between their respective supporters remained an important test.

Urban Voters May Turn To Bersama

MyKuasa chief executive Praba Ganesan said the controversy could be more significant in urban constituencies, particularly Kota Laksamana, compared with Tanjung Bidara.

He said voters in these areas were more likely to scrutinise the implications of Najib’s house arrest, with DAP supporters potentially more affected than Amanah supporters.

Praba said some urban voters understood the dynamics of the Pardons Board but believed ministers in Kuala Lumpur should have challenged the matter more strongly.

He added that voters who had been considering Bersama could now be more inclined to support the party, noting that some might view a state election as an opportunity to register dissatisfaction without making what they regard as a decisive political choice.

Bersama could gain more votes in the Melaka state election following Najib’s house arrest. (Picture credit: Parti Bersama Malaysia/Facebook)

He cited voting patterns in the 2021 Melaka state election and the 2022 general election, when voters who had backed BN at state level subsequently supported PH in the federal polls.

Praba, however, said the controversy was unlikely to substantially change the intentions of voters who had already decided to support BN or PN.

He identified Bersama as a possible beneficiary, although he said the party might not necessarily lose all its deposits.

“Biggest loser is clear. Pakatan (PH),” he said.

Loke’s Resignation Could Contain Political Damage

Political scientist Dr Wong Chin Huat said some PH supporters could respond by staying away from the polls or voting for Bersama, rather than switching their support to BN or PN.

He said DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke’s resignation from the Cabinet could have helped limit the damage by showing that at least one senior PH leader was prepared to take a stand.

Loke keeps his word, resigns after Najib begins house arrest. (Picture credit: Yusof Mat Isa/Malay Mail)

Wong noted that Loke’s first ceramah in Melaka following his resignation had generated enthusiasm among supporters on the ground.

He said the controversy could alienate urban and younger voters, including Malays, rather than affecting only non-Malay communities.

Wong argued that Najib’s return to house arrest reinforced perceptions among some voters that Umno had not changed, despite the party’s rejection by Malay voters in the 2018 and 2022 general elections.

He also said BN’s cooperation with PN under the Malay unity narrative had limited the choices available to Malay voters who might otherwise have considered supporting PN independently.

Some of these voters could turn to Bersama or even PH, he added, although the consequences might become more apparent in future elections.

The analysts’ assessments suggest that while the Najib controversy could strengthen BN’s existing support base, it also presents PH with a challenge among voters who expect the coalition to uphold its reform commitments.

For PH, the immediate concern is whether disappointed supporters will stay home or look elsewhere for an alternative.

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