By most accounts, Robert Downey Jr. is the odds-on favorite this weekend to win his first Oscar for Best Supporting Actor – something that, unless there’s a huge upset, will most likely happen. He’s been nominated twice before: a Best Actor nomination for Chaplin* (having no real chance in a stacked year, up against Denzel Washington for Malcolm X, Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven, and winner Al Pacino for Scent of a Woman) and a Supporting Actor nomination for playing Kirk Lazarus in Tropic Thunder (again having no real chance against posthumous winner Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight.)