LONDON - In 1918, Soviet revolutionary Leon Trotsky told Western creditors aghast at the Bolsheviks' repudiation of Russia's external debt: 'Gentlemen, you were warned.'

He reminded them that the dismissal of Tsarist-era debt had been a key manifesto of the failed uprising in 1905. More than a century later, Russia stands on the brink of another default but this time there was no warning.