Advance GDP figures

MALAYSIA’s first-quarter 2026 (1Q26) gross domestic product (GDP) data, due this week, will offer an indication of the country’s economic momentum amid the Middle East conflict.

Bloomberg estimates 1Q26 growth at 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research forecasts a 6% expanion, easing from 6.3% in 4Q25.

Apex Securities said the advance GDP print should provide clearer signals on the extent of spillovers from the conflict to the domestic economy, adding a prolonged conflict may warrant a revision to projections.

For now, it maintained its 2026 manufacturing growth forecast at 4.5% y-o-y and GDP forecast at 4.7%.

The World Bank has raised Malaysia’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.4% from 4.1%, despite mounting global uncertainties.

Meanwhile, TA Research has maintained its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.3% to 4.7% as its base case, projecting contributions of 3.8% from manufacturing and 0.1% from mining, while continuing to monitor incoming data and adjust its outlook if conditions change.

The Statistics Department is expected to announce the inflation rate this week, with Bloomberg estimating 2% y-o-y and UOB forecasting 1.9%, up from 1.4% in February.