One of the biggest surprises in 2025 has been

. Front-loading in anticipation of US President Donald Trump’s punitive “America First” tariffs helped allay concerns about a collapse in volumes.

But this certainly will not be enough for 2026, the second year of the second Trump administration. The World Trade Organisation in October sharply downgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 from a previous 1.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent.