India’s brutal second wave of Covid-19 has barely receded and there’s already talk about the next wave.

As pockets of the country begin to lift restrictions, a mathematical model by the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, published this week, has predicted three scenarios for a possible third wave in the country. The model assumes most Covid-19 restrictions will be lifted by July 15. In the worst-case scenario, India could see as many as 500,000 cases a day, with a peak by September (the second wave peaked at around 400,000 cases in May). In the best-case scenario, daily cases could be at 200,000 a day.