How the Nation Swung Back to Trump in 2024

Donald J. Trump’s swift victory was driven by red shifts across the country, with gains among seemingly every possible grouping of Americans.

By Zach Levitt, Keith Collins, Robert Gebeloff, Malika Khurana and Marco Hernandez

Nov. 6, 2024

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, shifted red in 2016, blue in 2020 and back to red in 2024.

How the shifts are calculated: In 2020, Joseph R. Biden, Jr., won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points. In 2024, Mr. Trump won the state by 1.9 points, as of Wednesday evening. The gap between those margins is the shift, which in this case is 3.1 points in favor of Republicans.

Other swing states

The four other swing states that have been called so far also moved to the right, sealing Mr. Trump’s second presidential win. In Georgia, Mr. Trump reversed two consecutive blue shifts.

Georgia

North Carolina

Wisconsin

Michigan

Cities and suburbs

While Mr. Trump lost to Kamala Harris in many swing state cities and suburbs, he did so by a smaller margin than he lost to now-President Biden in 2020. In all but one example shown below, two blue shifts in 2016 and 2020 were followed by a red shift in 2024.

Philadelphia suburbs

4 counties

Mecklenburg Co., N.C. (Charlotte)

1 county

Wayne Co., Mich. (Detroit)

1 county

Detroit suburbs

5 counties

Atlanta and suburbs

16 counties

Rural-urban divide

Around the country, in counties where nearly all votes are in, the trend was similar. Support for Mr. Trump continued to increase in rural counties, while Ms. Harris lost ground in cities and suburbs.

Urban counties

97 counties

Suburban counties

510 counties

Rural counties

2,142 counties

Race and ethnicity

Mr. Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters in 2020. In this election, he continued to grow his margins in counties with large populations of Hispanic residents. There were also shifts to the right in counties with large populations of Black and Native American residents.

Hispanic-majority counties

86 counties

Native-American majority counties

17 counties

Black-majority counties

80 counties

Educational attainment

Mr. Trump’s margins widened over the past three elections in counties with large populations of residents without college degrees. But in this election, he also gained ground in counties with a high share of college graduates.

Less-educated counties

2,460 counties

More-educated counties

285 counties

Economic types

In 2024, Mr. Trump’s support in farming counties continued to grow. He also reversed Democratic gains in mining and manufacturing counties.

Farming counties

417 counties

Mining counties

206 counties

Manufacturing counties

480 counties

Age

Mr. Trump has generally been more popular with older voters, but his electoral performance improved across other age groups.

Younger counties

101 counties

Middle-age counties

521 counties

Older counties

323 counties

Across the country

In all 34 states where at least 95 percent of votes were in as of Wednesday evening, the vote margin for Mr. Trump had increased, even in places that historically favored Democrats.