Trump Gained 95,000 Votes in New York City. Democrats Lost Half a Million.

Trump Gained 95,000 Votes in New York City. Democrats Lost Half a Million.

The New York Times-US·2024-11-23 06:00

Where each candidate gained or lost votes compared with the party’s 2020 candidate, by borough

Bronx

MANHATTAN

QUEENS

Harris

BROOKLYN

STATEN

ISLAND

Bronx

MANHATTAN

QUEENS

Trump

BROOKLYN

STATEN

ISLAND

Trump Gained 95,000 Votes in New York City. Democrats Lost Half a Million.

By Keith CollinsZach LevittMalika Khurana and Nicholas Fandos

Nov. 22, 2024

Donald J. Trump won 30 percent of the votes cast in New York City this month. It was a seven-point jump from his performance in 2020, and a higher share of the vote than any Republican nominee has won in the city since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

But his improved vote share was driven more by the votes Democrats lost than by the votes he gained.

How votes changed since 2020

Where each candidate gained or lost votes compared with the party’s 2020 candidate, by neighborhood

Harris

Trump

In every neighborhood in New York City, from Red Hook in Brooklyn to Riverdale in the Bronx, Vice President Kamala Harris received markedly fewer votes than Joseph R. Biden, Jr. did in 2020, while in most neighborhoods, Mr. Trump notched modest increases compared with his last run.

The votes cast in New York City have not yet been certified, but more than 97 percent of them have been counted. That includes all ballots that were cast in person, both on Election Day and before, and a majority of absentee ballots, according to Vincent M. Ignizio, the deputy executive director of the city’s election board.

As it stands, the downturn in votes for the Democratic candidate was six times the size of Mr. Trump’s gains when compared with 2020. In some boroughs, the ratio was even larger.

Change in vote by borough, compared with 2020

Harris Trump All of New York City

−573,600

+94,600

Queens

−164,900

+35,400

Brooklyn

−151,700

+16,600

Manhattan

−120,900

+17,900

Bronx

−111,000

+23,800

Staten Island

−25,100

+900

In total, about 3 million ballots were cast in New York City in the 2020 election, and about 2.6 million have been counted so far in 2024. Many New Yorkers moved out of the city during the pandemic, and by the 2022 midterms, the total number of registered voters here had already started to drop. As of this month, there were about 230,000 fewer active registered Democrats in the city than there were in 2020, and about 12,000 more registered Republicans.

It is not clear how much that contributed to the outcome of the election, but the pattern of Democratic losses and Republican gains was clear across all income levels and ethnic groups in the city. The drop-off was most pronounced among working-class immigrant groups who live outside Manhattan, many of them in the neighborhoods that were hit the hardest by the pandemic and the economic disruption that followed.

Several of the neighborhoods where the Democratic Party lost the most ground were in Queens, including some with large populations of working-class Latino immigrants.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

A New York City map full of inverted orange triangles indicating precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020.

In Corona, a neighborhood in Queens, Ms. Harris won about 6,500 fewer votes than Mr. Biden won in 2020, and Mr. Trump gained about 2,700 votes.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

Map zooms to Corona in Queens, showing many inverted orange triangles indicating precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020.

In Flushing, one of the hubs of Asian life in the city, Democrats lost nearly 10,000 votes compared with 2020. As it stands, Mr. Trump won more votes than Ms. Harris here by a margin of just under 400.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

The map pans east to Flushing, where many inverted orange triangles indicate precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020.

Some of the neighborhoods where the Democratic Party saw the biggest losses were in Upper Manhattan and in the Bronx, the city’s poorest borough.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

The map shifts to the Bronx, where orange inverted triangles indicate precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020, and a few green triangles indicate where she gained votes.

In University Heights, a neighborhood in the Bronx with a large Latino population, Mr. Biden won 84 percent of 12,000 votes in 2020, and Ms. Harris won just 66 percent of the 9,400 votes cast in 2024.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

The map shifts to University Heights in the Bronx, where large orange inverted triangles indicate precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020.

In East Harlem, a racially diverse neighborhood that is among the lowest income sections of Manhattan, Ms. Harris received about 10,200 fewer votes than Mr. Biden four years ago, and Mr. Trump won about 860 more than in 2020.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

The map shifts to East Harlem in Manhattan, where large orange inverted triangles indicate precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020.

Ms. Harris held up best in high-income neighborhoods known for expensive brownstones and highly educated residents, like Clinton Hill in Brooklyn. Ms. Harris won 94 percent of about 12,300 votes here, compared with the 97 percent of about 13,400 votes that Mr. Biden won in 2020.

Precincts where Harris gained or lost votes compared with Biden in 2020

The map pans south to Clinton Hill, Brooklyn, where a few small inverted orange triangles indicate precincts where Ms. Harris lost votes compared with Mr. Biden in 2020, which is less than in other areas

The neighborhood where Democratic turnout dropped the most in terms of percentage change was Borough Park, an Orthodox Jewish enclave in Brooklyn that voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump. While support for Mr. Trump increased only slightly, from about 22,200 votes in 2020 to 22,700 in 2024, turnout for the Democratic candidate dropped 46 percent, from about 7,600 votes in 2020 to about 4,100 in 2024.

Where Democratic support declined the most

Percentage change in votes compared with 2020

Neighborhood Harris Trump Borough Park, Brooklyn

−46%

+2%

Woodhaven, Queens

−42%

+46%

Bensonhurst, Brooklyn

−40%

+12%

Corona, Queens

−40%

+57%

Richmond Hill, Queens

−39%

+35%

Ocean Parkway, Brooklyn

−39%

+1%

Elmhurst, Queens

−38%

+30%

Gravesend, Brooklyn

−37%

+13%

Flushing, Queens

−36%

+11%

Dyker Heights, Brooklyn

−36%

+9%

Morrisania, Bronx

−36%

+62%

East Tremont, Bronx

−36%

+57%

East Harlem, Manhattan

−36%

+26%

South Richmond Hill, Queens

−36%

+49%

Concourse, Bronx

−35%

+58%

Note: Data includes neighborhoods that had 10,000 votes or more in 2024.

Among income groups in the city, the precincts with the lowest median incomes saw the largest drop in support for the Democratic candidate, and the largest increase in support for Mr. Trump.

Percentage change in votes compared with 2020

Areas that are... Harris Trump Lowest income

−32%

+24%

Middle income

−26%

+12%

Highest income

−17%

+7%

Note: The lowest income areas have a median income in the bottom 25 percent of all precincts; middle income areas have a median income in the middle 50 percent of all precincts; and highest income areas have a median income in the top 25 percent of all precincts.

Ms. Harris lost substantial support in precincts with larger populations of Latino and Asian voters. Asian voters have been shifting rightward in recent years because of a mix of concerns about crime, city education policies and the economy.

Mr. Trump made significant gains in precincts where a majority of residents were Latino or Black.

Percentage change in votes compared with 2020

Areas that are at least… Harris Trump 45% Asian

−37%

+19%

70% Hispanic

−37%

+55%

70% Black

−21%

+46%

90% white

−18%

−2%

……

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