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Tariffs. They started a revolution—the one involving King George III, John Hancock, and a duty on tea (ok, sure, there were other grievances). And though tossing all your South Korean glass skin serums into the Boston Harbor might not work this time, emotions are likely to run high if the incoming Trump administration follows through on the president-elect’s promises to drastically increase tariffs on imports to the U.S. So we’ve dug into just how steeper taxes on beauty imports could impact the industry and our own shopping carts.

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What is a tariff?

Why should you care about tariffs?

How could new tariffs affect the beauty industry specifically?

When could these potential price hikes take effect?

How will beauty businesses address tariffs?

How could tariffs ultimately affect your beauty shopping—and the brands you love?

What is a tariff?

Tariffs are taxes paid to a government on goods imported from abroad. They’re not particularly novel in our country, even in recent history: In 2018 and 2019, Trump—who nicknamed himself “Tariff Man”—imposed tariffs on $380 billion worth of certain products and materials imported from a variety of countries, including many from China. During his 2024 campaign, Trump said he’d enact even higher tariffs on imported goods. Though his plans remain unclear, he has suggested putting in place 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all imports, and 60 to 100 percent tariffs on imports from China. This is nearly 10 times more than the tariffs he enacted in his previous term, according to Wendy Edelberg, PhD, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institution.

The general thinking behind tariffs, on both sides of the aisle, is that taxing foreign goods will boost the American economy by increasing domestic jobs and sales on domestic-made products. Over the last four years, President Biden kept most of Trump’s tariffs in place, discontinued others, and created some of his own. The tariffs under the Biden administration, however, are much smaller than what Trump has now suggested, says Edelberg, who notes that these could be the first average double-digit tariff rates for all imports since the 1940s.

Why should you care about tariffs?

Because a higher cost of goods can mean higher prices when you check out. Sellers have a few ways of responding to tax increases on imported products, says Edelberg. They can try to negotiate with the supplying foreign companies for lower costs, but that’s not likely to fly. They can elect to eat some or all of the extra costs in the interest of maintaining market share and consumer loyalty. Or they can pass the pain onto consumers. Looking forward to the potential tariffs coming in 2025, “the prediction is pretty unambiguous, and it’s that prices would go up,” says Philip Rothman, PhD, professor of economics at East Carolina University.

Though a big motivation behind taxing imports is encouraging sales of American-manufactured goods, economists say tariffs don’t necessarily do that because when foreign-supplied products go up in price, American-made ones often follow suit. For instance, in his first term, Trump introduced a tariff on foreign-made washing machines, which increased their prices. It wasn’t long before domestic washing machines became more expensive, too. (If a foreign company can charge more, why can’t we?) Even though Trump didn’t enforce tariffs on dryers, perhaps you can guess what happened. “People think of washing machines and dryers as going together,” says Edelberg. “So when the dryers look cheap next to the washers, companies can get away with raising their prices too.”

The U.S. imports trillions of dollars of goods each year—in 2023, nearly $4 trillion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Given the huge volume of imports from overseas, this means tariffs are likely to affect items we purchase every day, from clothes and groceries to car parts and medical supplies. And, yes, beauty and personal care products.

How could new tariffs affect the beauty industry specifically?

Depending on the origin country of the goods, Americans could pay up to a significant premium—from 10 to over 60 percent—on imported skin care, makeup, and other personal care items. If you’ve been buying a $60 moisturizer that’s imported from Europe, for example, it’s reasonable to speculate you’d pay $12 more, or $72, for that item under a 20 percent tariff. “Evidence suggests prices would likely go up by the amount of the tariff,” says Rothman.

But just because a product is manufactured in the U.S. doesn’t mean it’s totally American-made and immune from tariffs. Many non-imported items use foreign “input,” economics-speak for things like ingredients and packaging. Betsey Stevenson, PhD, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan says that even if a product is manufactured domestically, sellers may end up paying (and charging) more due to tariffs on other parts of the supply chain.

In a recent TikTok video, cosmetic chemist Javon Ford said beauty companies who use patented ingredients manufactured abroad, for example, could be affected because they can’t buy that exact ingredient at a lower cost from elsewhere. A concealer, for example, could use a material that’s made by a European company—under tariffs, their options would be to pay more for that ingredient, or to reformulate.

For the most part though, beauty brands are sourcing the ingredients for products sold in the U.S. from American suppliers, says independent cosmetic chemist Perry Romanowski. One exception are plant-based ingredients like coconut oil or palm oil—commonly used in foundation, concealer, lipstick, and more. Romanowski says products that contain those ingredients are more likely to see price spikes—the United States simply doesn’t grow that many coconut palms (which produce both oils). The same is true for products made with exotic ingredients, like a perfume with a note from vanilla only found in Madagascar.

“The prediction is pretty unambiguous, and it’s that prices would go up.”

A jump in the prices of China-made packaging is where both Romanowski and Ford think the beauty industry could take the real hit, though. “Packaging is already a substantial portion of the cost of making a cosmetic,” says Romanowski. And many, many brands get their packaging from China, where it’s produced much more cheaply. “It’ll affect makeup, hair care, skin care—anything sold in a bottle,” says Romanowski.

And in all of this, as you might imagine, small beauty businesses could be disproportionately affected. They don’t have the leverage of the larger conglomerates to enlist the legal resources and Washington lobbyists necessary to navigate tariffs or get exceptions from the federal government, says Edelberg. In Trump's first term, for example, it's been reported that Apple CEO Tim Cook was able to lobby the administration to secure exemptions on the China tariffs for the iPhone and other Apple products.

When could these potential price hikes take effect?

It depends. Some companies may spike prices as they sense consumer stress about product cost and availability and thus anticipate a higher demand. “As an extreme example, if you knew we would never be able to import Chanel lipstick into the U.S again, the price would go up immediately because people will realize they should buy it before it’s gone,” says Stevenson.

Some changes for consumers may not be immediate. First off, the administration has to actually enact the policy before any changes happen. And many imported goods have lengthy supply chains, which means it takes time for your favorite eye cream or highlighter to make it to store shelves. Some sellers don’t share the price burden with consumers until they truly can’t afford to pay rising costs anymore. “Even if the short-run effect isn’t to push up the price, we eventually see prices go up in the long-term,” says Stevenson.

How will beauty businesses address tariffs?

Many beauty companies have already dealt with tariffs. Tarang Amin, CEO of e.l.f. Beauty—which has been facing a 25 percent tariff on imports since 2019 due to an earlier Trump policy—recently told Yahoo Finance that any new policies wouldn’t affect the company or consumers until 2026. In a Business Insider article, Amin explained that he doesn’t like tariffs, because they tax the American people. “[In 2019], we pulled all the levers available to us to minimize the effects to our company and our community,” he added. When Allure reached out to Amin for further comment this month, he said in a statement that if e.l.f. is subject to new tariffs, “we'd use a similar playbook to 2019. At that time, we took a well-balanced approach with a combination of select pricing updates, cost savings, FX [foreign exchange], supplier concessions and manufacturing diversification.”

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Economists also shared with us a few ways beauty companies might react, other than price increases alone. One includes buying products at a lower cost from other countries, which means you may notice a change in a beauty product’s packaging. For example, instead of Chinese packaging that’s subject to a 60 percent (or far higher) tariff, a business could buy from a neighboring country. “There’s already been a shift from China to Vietnam,” says Rothman.

Beauty companies that haven’t already made a shift away from China, should start thinking about it immediately, says David Chung, founder and CEO of Innovation Labs (iLABS) and Morae Packaging. “Because it takes six to 12 months to move business from one country to another,” he says. “For example, a brand that buys glass bottles and plastic from China and brings them to the U.S. to batch and fill may want to think about buying the glass from Korea, letting Korea batch and fill everything, and bringing the product as a complete turnkey to the U.S. That could lead to cost savings.”

Countries subject to the 10 to 20% tariff might also make moves to reduce import costs. Charlotte Cho, co-founder of online retailer Soko Glam and skin-care brand Then I Met You, says that in the last few years, some Korean beauty manufacturers have already begun partnering with U.S. manufacturers to cut down on import costs, potentially in anticipation of new or rising tariffs.

A company may also opt not to use ingredients or components only available in certain countries, which could result in changes to the product. Maybe a new tube of your go-to lip gloss smells a little different or a fresh tube of the CC cream you’ve always used now pills over your sunscreen. “If you notice the formula is not the same as it used to be, don’t be surprised,” says Stevenson. She also points out how consumers have been calling out the food industry for keeping prices the same—“but putting fewer chips in the bag.” The phenomenon has been called “shrinkflation” and it could come to the beauty industry, too.

How could tariffs ultimately affect your beauty shopping—and the brands you love?

While the point of tariffs is to boost business and stimulate the U.S. economy, experts we spoke to say taxing imports could negatively affect the economy in big ways. (For a little historical background, search “tariffs and the Great Depression.” It ain’t pretty.) “The tentacles of tariffs will reach much farther than is immediately obvious to many people,” says Stevenson. It’s not uncommon for tariffs to disrupt international trade relationships: For example, Rothman says France is the largest importer of American beauty products. If we raise prices on French beauty products, France or the European Union as a whole might in turn impose tariffs on the products we export to them, potentially resulting in fewer sales of U.S. products overseas.

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Whether consumers will buy more expensive beauty products depends on their own price sensitivity. Some may not even notice or mind a small change (especially if a product is worth a few extra bucks to you). Take Korean beauty: Cho suspects one reason for K-beauty’s popularity—it’s affordable, but also high-quality—will help keep sales steady in the U.S. market if tariffs take effect. “Even with a 10 to 20 percent price increase, you’re still getting a pretty good value compared to what you might see on the market from Europe or the United States,” she says.

But in other corners of the beauty industry, the change could have serious repercussions—and most companies really don’t want to talk about it right now. At least that’s what I’ve found in my post-election reporting this month. Beauty brands big and small, as well as retailers like Sephora and Ulta, declined to be interviewed on how tariffs could impact their business. Some agreed to speak on background to explain their reasoning and in a nutshell: No one wants to stir the pot (in case you’re wondering, the pot is the incoming administration).

“If you notice the formula is not the same as it used to be, don’t be surprised.”

The Personal Care Products Council (PCPC), the United States’ leading beauty industry trade group, also declined to comment for this article. In a 2018 statement responding to tariffs enacted during Trump’s first term, PCPC strongly opposed them on personal care products, citing the impact on American buyers shopping for essential items like soap, shampoo, deodorant, and sunscreen.

“[The] burden will unmistakably be felt by American families,” PCPC stated six years ago. “The price increases on these products will also greatly curtail consumer choices relating to hygiene and health.” Ultimately, in 2018 and 2019,some products became more expensive, but not dramatically so. And consumers weren’t already struggling with steeper prices following a period of high inflation.

Several weeks out from the inauguration, it’s too soon to predict whether your favorite shampoo or mascara will get pricier under Trump’s economics. The beauty industry is historically resilient, weathering economic storms from the Great Depression to the Great Recession of the late aughts. As the Lipstick Index theory goes, purchases of small luxuries (like lipstick and other makeup) often increase during economic slumps, potentially as a way to indulge on a budget. But coming out of a period of high inflation, we’re already contending with elevated prices, so could new tariffs put those indulgences truly out of reach this time? It remains to be seen.

To read more about the economics of beauty:

Society's Beauty Standards Are Costing Us Billions of Dollars

Beauty Products Are the Most Expensive They've Been Since 2016

If Grants for Black-Owned Businesses Are Eliminated, Your Favorite Beauty Brands Could Be Too